Brexit

Brexit

Secondly, it is quite straightforward to make educated deductions simply by a scratch on the surface, regardless of the governments throwing nice funds on research and superforcasting. Confidence in a second victory for the Liberal Democrat’s Nick Clegg has begun to wane as punters turn to David Cameron in the Leader’s Debate betting, report bookies right now.

From 9.four (11%) when I tipped him in March, the Chancellor is now the clear 2.eight favourite, rated a 35% probability. If that head-to-head state of affairs develops, one would count on each to be at least 25%.

At one stage May went all the way down to 2.34 (forty three%) but tonight Johnson is again in front at 2.three (forty three%) to her odds of 3.1 (32%). I suppose that is proper, and managed to leap aboard the bandwagon at 2.5 (40%), as suggested on Twitter.

Consider the last two incumbents – John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. Both prime-level Democrat politicians, firmly on the same page as President Obama.

It is sort of unimaginable that a Democrat-controlled House won’t vote to impeach. From 3.5 when recommended in September, the percentages are actually a mere 1.17 with Paddy Power. A greater danger to the bet, somewhat than dropping a vote, is that Trump resigns before it materialises.

I can’t see her Next President odds getting a lot greater than the present thirteen.0 within the quick-time period given the inevitable speculation. Oprah v Trump is beyond the wildest desires of media executives. Assuming Bolton is indeed compelled out, identifying their subsequent leader is among the trickiest tasks imaginable in this sphere of betting. Our early market is open with the favourite out there at 5/1. They may be polling beneath 2% and be all however worn out in native authorities however you simply can’t hold UKIP out of the headlines.

A Conservative needn’t like and even agree with Trump to vote for him – successful the White House and Congress were extra necessary. Had Republicans picked a extra centrist candidate like John Kasich, they would probably have won a landslide. The key point is that, whereas there are social and ideological parallels between these varied populist, anti-establishment waves, the conditions of each national election are different. There are points distinctive to every country and their party techniques differ. So with Brexit, UK voters have been coping with a single issue that reduce across get together and ideological boundaries.

They haven’t even got a candidate for next month’s Peterborough By-Election. There are nonetheless plenty of differentials between polling corporations but all are united in expectation of a massive win for the Brexit Party, who at the moment are priced at just 1.02 to win Most Seats. Voting for the European Parliamentary Elections commences on Thursday morning however bettors should observe that no outcomes shall be announced till Sunday night from 10pm. All the change markets will due to this fact be in-play over the next four days.

Even although a big share of Republicans had been by no means convinced and less than half supported him, simply holding a internet favourable place towards a crowded area was enough to win most primaries. President Obama often data an approval score above 50%.

The line between bookmaking and good old political evaluation is tough to detect at instances—at least up to the point the place money changes hands. The Budd report took over a year to write and was revealed in 2001. The act grew to become law in 2005 and was absolutely applied in 2007. If the identical occurs now, then by the time a new act comes into effect, in 2027, the industry may have changed past recognition, with new merchandise, new markets and new kinds of currency.

The race circumstances make it exhausting to front-run and early momentum is invariably pushed by media hypothesis from pundits who, frankly, have a terrible document. These market tendencies are pushed extra by how bettors think the race might pan out over time, somewhat than a reflection of polling shifts. We’ve had five polls within the final seven days, every led by Biden with assist averaging 28%.

With Cruz trying sturdy in Wisconsin and Trump drifting out there as his likelihood of winning a majority of delegates diminishes, his odds could tighten additional in the brief-term. The next massive race is Tuesday’s Wisconsin Primary, the place 42 delegates shall be allotted. From initially being thought of an in depth contest, all of the market and polling indicators point towards a snug win for Cruz. The Texas Senator is now rated 87% prone to win at odds of 1.15.

Yet so far as we all know, neither Clinton or Trump had been ever in actual hazard of being replaced. Fuelled no doubt by the drama of 2016 and Marine Le Pen’s plausible candidacy, the French election was already shaping up to be a much larger betting heat than ordinary before the Penelopegate scandal broke. Now, as I wrote earlier this week, we are looking at a possible re-run of the US election drama. Corbyn would wish to survive with more and more few allies.

Here’s one other main black female politician, liable to rise up the betting order as she turns into higher identified. Demings was one of the House managers throughout Trump’s impeachment trial – an appointment that demonstrates the respect she has among the many get together management. She represents a district in Florida – all the time among the many key swing states. Klobuchar’s endorsement was a important, completely timed enhance for Biden, enabling him to win her house state of Minnesota. She had crushed him in New Hampshire they usually had been pursuing the same section of voters.

From the previous 20 if you had followed the winner of the Kerry National subsequent time out then you definitely would have again a complete of two winners. Backing all 20 runners who’ve been out since to win at SP subsequent time out, would have returned an LSP of -14.forty five. Whilst we wait for the 2020 Kerry National keep in mind you can get day by day racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page. When wanting at the over-rounds for the final 20 renewals, the most aggressive market was in 2001 when the race had an over-spherical of 124%.

Bernie’s odds for both markets are pretty beneficiant and prone to shorten in the weeks ahead. After a lot hypothesis, Michael Bloomberg has qualified and will make his first look on the controversy stage.

Betfair has no such restrictions, after all, but to be able to play significantly we’ll want rather more liquidity than is at present obtainable. Hopefully it’ll improve, as political gamblers free up funds from the nomination markets.

The 2020 presidential election is considered a futures wager, for which you can decide Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and several others. A moneyline bet offers with two possible outcomes; for example, “Which celebration will win the 2020 presidential election? ” Often, regardless of having two attainable options, the probability of either of them taking place isn’t an equal 50/50 break up. As you know, the category of “political betting” covers a broad range of distinctive wager types and occasions.

My lengthy-time period evaluation that Trump’s odds have been too quick has always been legitimately countered by arguing that the incumbent had the time and opportunity to show round dire polls. When I final analysed the Next Conservative Leader bettingbetting, Boris Johnson had simply taken over however his future was highly uncertain. We didn’t know if or when there could be a snap basic election or whether Brexit would occur. It is indeed necessary to recollect the previous election – both as a guide to the fallibility of betting signals but also so as to keep away from drawing false comparisons. If we are to learn something into the betting, Tammy Duckworth could be the one.

The key factor to recollect is to make sure that you have thought-about all the relevant elements before you make the leap, and the best way to do that is to put a price on each of the choices in the market. Only whenever you’ve carried out that, and are nonetheless joyful with your authentic alternative, must you think about a bet. Newspapers and television media are much less important than opinion polls, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be able to afford to ignore them, not least because politicians regard them as necessary. Journalists work onerous to cultivate relationships with politicians, and by following them in the media, you may also have the ability to choose up on clues, significantly whenever you get to understand how they work. In relation to unfold betting Sporting Index Ltd is authorised and regulated within the UK by theFinancial Conduct Authority registration quantity which can be verifiedhere.

YouGov put the Tories seven factors clear of Labour as did Opinium. The prize went to Survation who put the Conservatives on forty two% and Labour on 40%, very close to the actual end result. Their poll was merely ignored by the merchants within the betting market, although current events had clearly advised that polling firms were actively engaged in statistical smoothing and herding. Presidential Election Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams took to Twitter to tweet to Nate Silver about the supremacy of the betting markets.

She already had a giant lead amongst the members who will finally decide and it now appears unimaginable that she wouldn’t make the final two. The printed portfolio yielded 76 items revenue and after two in-play cover bets introduced on Twitter, my whole revenue after commission was around one hundred seventy units. Historical analogies with the Eighties are appropriately doing the rounds.

He could very properly re-take favouritism over Joe Biden by the end of at present’s trading. This regardless of the assumed reasons behind Trump’s extraordinary betting surge disintegrating yesterday.

Smaller markets – London Mayor, German Chancellor, French President, Scottish Independence Referendum, US mid-phrases – met the criteria. Political betting markets solely grew to massive global scale in the 21st century. Betfair – the world’s first on-line betting change – swiftly turned the premier platform after being founded in 2001.

This is key to enjoying side markets such as chief exit dates or when the subsequent election shall be held. For example last 12 months there have been good income to be made from predicting how the sophisticated Brexit process would play out. It was attainable to suppose ahead and work out that a common election would be wanted and that Theresa May would be removed as Tory chief earlier than it occurred.

She can be free to choose her date of departure and some would even call for her to reverse plans to quit before the following election. The Tories are nowhere nearer rallying round an apparent successor and there’s no appetite for another challenge.

This was confirmation bias and motivated reasoning at its best. Most merchants consider themselves to be much less susceptible to biases than different traders – in any other case why would they hassle to commerce. One hour after polls closed within the Brexit Referendum, the implied probability, on Betfair, the world’s largest betting change, that the UK would vote to stay in Europe was ninety four%! Many people accordingly went to bed, believing that the vote was a accomplished deal. The communications theorist Paul Watzlawick wrote that a phenomenon remains unexplainable so long as the vary of observation isn’t wide sufficient to include the context by which the phenomenon happens.

My robust view all through was that it might be very close, due to this fact making a narrow Remain win excellent trading worth. Even if Remain had surrendered favouritism, the odds about a slim Remain win would have fallen.

Each election is exclusive – whether or not that be the events/candidates and/or their model at that exact moment, key issues or differential motivation of explicit groups of voters. Smart betting entails figuring out constantly reliable indicators – a formbook. Ideally, there are methods that may be applied throughout events.

When we do hear about one, it tends to have been commissioned by a faction with an apparent agenda – such as the Labour Leave survey that advised UKIP have been on track to win Stoke simply. Sure, Labour misplaced many once-loyal voters in the course of the decade previous to Corbyn taking over, and it’ll inevitably take time to convince them that the get together has returned to it’s socialist roots. But somewhat than getting with the brand new programme, MPs undermined Corbyn from day one, dividing the get together and making a horrible media narrative by their disloyalty. That no political market may ever examine to the 2016 US election.

Once you’ve chosen an internet gambling website that gives betting odds politics, you will then have to open an account. The course of requires some basic personal data from you, which should take no more than 2 minutes to enter. Secondly, you can wager on who’s to win an upcoming leadership race.

First of all, congratulations to those that did so earlier, at finest odds of [70.zero] and [150.0] in those respective markets. Sadly, I was so consumed by the election and events across the Atlantic that it by no means crossed my thoughts until far too late. Will this prove a turning level for the get together, a decade after they last held power? Considering how far behind they’re at present in the Westminster stakes, the early betting signals are relatively constructive. Labour have been matched this morning at [2.5] to win Most Seats at the Next General Election, and [4.four] for an Overall Majority.

Any mixture of none, some or all of those occasions is plausible. As ever with the Trump rollercoaster experience, this is an unprecedented state of affairs for political bettors.

If a candidate fails to reach a threshold – minimal 15% – within the first spherical, they will change to another candidate. The ultimate seven surveys all showed Bernie Sanders forward, along with his lead starting from a prime end of 7% to tied with Joe Biden. That is mirrored by the betting, with the Vermont Senator rated odds-on at [1.6].

However one other Scottish parallel may be very bad news for REMAIN – namely the lack to win over Labour voters. Part of this may be to do with arch-enemy Conservatives main the talk – although Jeremy Corbyn, Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown have all tried to be heard. I prefer this explanation from Owen Jones – that those who really feel they’ve the least financial stake in the established order are minded to desert it. I suspect there may be an in-built bias in direction of REMAIN out there, for at least two reasons.

We know that punters like to place long-time period wagers on the following Prime Minister, even when the present incumbent appears safe. You will usually discover the leader of the opposition among the favourites to turn into the subsequent Prime Minister, together with the Chancellor of the Exchequer and varied cabinet ministers. The odds will grow progressively longer until you find wild outsiders priced at 200/1 or 250/1.

Although these odds have since drifted to 1.35 (seventy four%), the logic behind such a wager is apparent. Unless Theresa May engineers an early election – not a simple transfer nowadays, because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act – Corbyn would need to survive for another three years.

laying greater bands in the electoral college markets as defined above offers better worth. There are actually quite a few markets related to the margin – including 4 handicap lines on Betfair, two relating to Clinton’s electoral school votes whole. Democrat states won is one other, if not exactly mirroring the electoral faculty tally. Nevertheless I am nonetheless trading and need to explain a number of the opportunities to hedge between markets which are more and more obtainable.

Heading into Labor Day weekend – the traditional beginning gun for the final, intense stage of the election – Betfair’s stay exchange market implies a race that is too near call. Trump’s chance, primarily based on their odds, rose from 35% to 46% during August. The firm reported a mean above £1M per day traded on their market for Next President – the majority for Trump. This is an incredibly emotional, generally stressful, pastime. A larger reason for gamblers dropping than merely choosing unhealthy bets is erratic, inconsistent staking.

More importantly, the standard of the data that is out there is questionable. This market entails betting on who will substitute Theresa May as the subsequent Prime Minister of the UK. Some bookmakers offer a money out facility whereby you’ll be able to settle your guess early, before the outcome is known, for a price less than the potential winnings could be. It is common in sports betting the place a punter may again a team to win and then cash out their guess once their group has taken the lead to guarantee a return, with out risking the tip end result going in opposition to them. When Boris Johnson took over the reins in 2019 and subsequently known as a common election, he was heavily odds-on to win.

Consistently presents one of the highest most wager limits online. Besides variety of sports to wager, Pinnacle accepts bets for e-Sport. Both suitable for amateurs and professionals – get essentially the most with minimal loss. where legal online sports activities betting just isn’t currently available. We’ve received a handy U.S. sports activities betting legalization maptracking all important adjustments being made in state legal guidelines.

Retail traders now account for 20% of equity buying and selling, up from 15% last 12 months, in accordance with an evaluation by Larry Tabb of Bloomberg Intelligence. When Trump initiated nuclear disarmament talks with “Little Rocket Man” Kim Jong Un of North Korea, sportsbooks offered Nobel odds for The Donald. However, you will get odds on whether or not or not the election might be delayed by COVID-19 at some sportsbooks.

Most of us have an opinion about politics, however you’ll want to ignore your opinion if you plan to wager on it. You have to ignore your biases and focus strictly on the facts. For example, historical past exhibits that America doesn’t wish to have a https://betbonus.top/sv/comeon-bonus-code/ political celebration in workplace for greater than two phrases. They get uninterested in one side’s insurance policies, in order that they swap them out for the other party. What we do know is that Clinton misplaced many states which have voted blue in recent elections to Trump, who visited these states more than she did throughout that election cycle.

Ahead of what appears a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market support for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this morning, the GOP front-runner is the most important odds he’s been since successful South Carolina in February to turn into the Republican Nominee. Nevertheless, until he implodes, Trump is more likely to shorten in the betting all through April, following those wins. At the top of the month, that conversation about 1237 will nonetheless be very much alive, and the narrative could have moved on from his terrible week in Wisconsin. For example, since major voting began, the best time to back Donald Trump was between defeat in Iowa , and victory in New Hampshire .

Most sports activities betting sites providing Trump odds will not host such strains, and we don’t suggest risking any cash on subjective outcomes. The odds of Trump successful in 2020 usually are not good, with his chances sitting between +one hundred and +145 relying on the sportsbook you choose. His polling numbers are also low, and he’s struggling to gain public help of his Presidency following the coronvirus-related US fallout.

Learn extra about how we evaluation and rank these web sites by clicking on any of the factors below. Nobody is extra singularly liable for the explosion of betting on politics than Donald Trump. Hate him or love him, he’s been the main focus of everyone’s consideration since his historic 2016 marketing campaign that culminated with a monumental upset over Hillary Clinton at roughly 4-1 odds. Not only are you able to wager on the eventual DNC nominee, however the best online political betting websites are also posting traces on every particular person state.

Now my complete danger on him is 20 models, to yield 388 revenue if becomes the nominee, plus a further 300 if he turns into president. The plan, as I’ll clarify shortly, is to lay that each one again within the weeks ahead. Always a vital General Election swing state, Florida’s role on this 12 months’s GOP main course of is also pivotal with 99 winner-takes-all delegates up for grabs. Having dominated the polls for months, Trump is overwhelming favorite, rated 89% doubtless at odds of 1.12, to take a big step towards the nomination.

Instead, Lewisham voters indignant about Brexit and/or wanting to make a protest towards Corbyn, will be mostly voting for the traditional mid-term protest celebration. The Lib Dems are buoyant and projecting around an six-fold increase on their 2017 vote share to say second place.

Week in, week out, Momentum activists are pouring into marginal seats that was unimaginable in the course of the New Labour years. Many Momentum activists, and Corbyn voters, were among the young folks that fuelled ‘Cleggmania’. This summer season has seen Corbyn playing to huge crowds in once Lib Dem seats the place Labour were irrelevant lower than a decade in the past – in Southport and in Cornwall. If there had been a Glastonbury pageant before the 2010 election, I’d wish to guess the Lib Dems would have topped a poll amongst that crowd.

They may fake that they don’t look at the polls, but in fact, political figures are continually trying on the polls. But no opinion ballot ever gave Secretary Clinton a ninety % likelihood. In some states, the polls had been mistaken, as a result of they underestimated the turnout of Trump-supporting white voters, but nationally, the polls have been right. Remember, an opinion ballot is simply a survey of opinions. Take time to read the underlying information in every opinion poll, not just the headlines, and get to know the way each opinion polling firm works, and their strengths and weaknesses.

Its all kicking off once more in what has turn out to be essentially the most bizarre political market in historical past. Just when it appeared that bettors have been giving up on Donald Trump leaving office prematurely, the US legal system offers the President a double-whammy. That simple parliamentary calculation, however, is where any sort of predictability ends. Indeed if our market signals are right, neither celebration will present the Next Prime Minister or be a part of the Next Government.

If the chances look like fluctuating, I might re-enter this market but for now, I can’t see previous May. Right now at least, there appears little point in including any new bets. May is by far and away the standout candidate, and Johnson’s exit leaves her in an unassailable place.

With daily, voters seem to be becoming extra entrenched. She’s been the overwhelming favourite to succeed Barack Obama since Betfair’s Next President market opened, and is the shortest priced ever at this stage of a US election cycle. She couldn’t have handpicked a more toxic opponent than Donald Trump, and enjoys a massive advantage by way of marketing campaign organisation. Yet Democrats are getting apprehensive that Hillary Clinton has not sealed the deal yet, and momentum is slowly shifting in direction of Trump.

Yet six months on, he stays means forward in national polls and his get together’s hierachy are getting very worried. Yet the individuals who really vote in get together management contests are more involved with having their clearly shaped views represented. They are inclined to favor someone who doesn’t calculate the fallout before expressing a view. And unlike the old days, they will consult a much wider set of media options – the place they can talk about their chosen, niche topic in as a lot detail as they desire. Corbyn’s election successfully stemmed from a Twitter marketing campaign.

Just to make clear, I already advised a lay of Trump at these odds on Twitter earlier in the week, however cashed out for a tiny profit after Cruz’s poor debate evening. Eventually, I imagine this will realistically boil down to a three runner race between Trump, Cruz and Rubio. We are already on Cruz for the nomination, so it should make sense to get Rubio on aspect. It shall be an upset were he to win Iowa, but he is booked for third and will at least come away with momentum. In contrast, the big question mark hanging over Trump is that a lot of his help comes from groups much less more likely to turnout or be registered Republicans.

In this guide, we’re going to debate politics, specifically betting on politics. Once the bonus is credited to your account, losses might be refunded as much as the bonus quantity. You must deposit a minimum of the qualifying deposit of £20 in a single amount with your first deposit to be eligible for the rebate. To withdraw rebated funds, you should guess no less than the qualifying deposit on any combination of markets within the promotional interval; in any other case rebated funds shall be forfeited. Unused bonuses expire after seven days of being credited to a consumer account and might be removed after this period.

Remember, Trump solely must convert a small variety of voters and/or unbound delegates. He has by no means looked likelier to be the nominee and, after tomorrow’s outcomes, is anticipated to hit his highest betting score but. Nevertheless, Trump is still a good distance from profitable the nomination. The probabilities of a Contested Convention have slipped to 67% from around 80%, however he’s nonetheless odds-on to fall wanting the 1237 delegates required to assure victory on the primary ballot. Given how Ted Cruz is instructing the political novice classes in securing delegates everywhere in the country, that first ballot is probably Trump’s solely likelihood of victory.

At current odds, Labour are rated simply 1.11 to win – equivalent to ninety%. The first of two elections with the potential to blow up British politics takes place on Thursday.

With Brexit and Donald Trump fresh within the memory, political bettors appear extra keen than ever to take on a brief-odds favourite. And within the biggest market since the Trump miracle, that technique is paying off handsomely.

Anyone that offered at 221 would have earned 18 instances their stake, while it was a night to overlook for patrons. The Lib Dems additionally struggled, ending up with a mere 11 seats, which was seven beneath the sell value. However, it was an excellent night time for the SNP, who ended up with 4 extra votes than the buy worth of 44. If you had been to purchase at fifty two and the Conservatives did win probably the most seats, you’d earn a profit equal to 48 times your stake.

The lockdown order truly came from the country’s provincial governments, which have appreciable decisionmaking authority, and in spite of objections from Prime Minister Imran Khan . The lockdown fell apart first in mosques at the beginning of Ramadan in late April, as the federal government caved to demands of the nation’s Muslim students . From there, it unraveled in markets within the last two weeks of Ramadan, the place traders had had enough. Recently, the company additionally received authorization for both sports activities betting and casino betting by the Portuguese regulatory body.

A few large bets and plenty of smaller punts on the Tories noticed one bookmaker cut the odds on the Conservatives profitable most seats on May sixth. On a extra smart stage, uk politics odds would possibly speculate on whether or not Boris Johnson will lose his seat at the subsequent election or you would guess on how long he may stay in office. Since his election in 2016, there have been a host of specials markets referring to Trump together with impeachment and even on whether or not the US had a larger nuclear button than North Korea. For extra regular choices, we are able to nonetheless bet on the subsequent President of the United States and, generally speaking, these markets are up on a permanent basis.

In 2019, Boris Johnson was the favourite when he defeated the Labour Party’s, Jeremy Corbin. Some of the extra prominent European sportsbooks additionally cowl elections in Ireland, France, and all through the EU.

Political odds are available from everywhere in the world but there is a big concentrate on choices from the UK. Many bookmakers are based here and this is their target market so expect to see most options directed towards British Politics. Because of this, it’s much more important to find the best sportsbook as there could be good worth in any political market.

All things thought of, the Supreme Court decision goes to lift pressure between each Republicans and Democrats within the upcoming months. However, the most important 2020 US Presidential Election odds shift might come after the primary Presidential debate scheduled for Tuesday, September 29.

It shall be clear to anyone wanting to stop Trump exactly who they have to vote for. Whereas this week is the primary time that has been the case. But maybe probably the most thrilling state to look at is Illinois. I’m listening to reports of massive crowds at Cruz occasions and the polls point to him being the clear anti-Trump selection, with a big Rubio/Kasich vote there to squeeze. He could be very interesting at 4.zero (25%) although once more the fact it’s an open main favours Trump.

The latest Realclearpolitics map initiatives Clinton on 272 – over the line, even earlier than 112 votes within the 9 toss-up states are decided. I challenge any Trump backer to explain how he wins each toss-up, then takes one from the ‘leans Clinton’ field. I even have comparable plans for the US election, about which there’s a definitive, confident prediction.

The consensus is now that Theresa May blew the election, yet she got 43.5% of the vote – unimaginable at any election since 1992. Perhaps with a better marketing campaign the Tories would have gotten forty five%, and with it a working majority, but their ceiling is scarcely greater. The basic dynamic in UK politics has at all times been Tory or not. Corbyn’s nice achievement was to one way or the other unite the nots, who are normally cut up several ways between liberals, greens and nationalists. Whilst such odds, and even merely the existence of such betting choices at this stage of a presidency, are unprecedented, it also needs to be famous that the market didn’t crash yesterday.

The betting market arbitrageur is the one punter that is never left holding the child; he has left the room before the primary squeal breaks out. He has surfed the wave of delusion, and parked up his surfboard, lengthy earlier than the tsunami has hit the shore.

Brexit could also be huge but it isn’t the only concern that defines an individual or an space’s politics. It is one thing for an ex-mining group to vote UKIP or for Brexit, however quite another to support the celebration that shut the mines.

After all, Trump (-a hundred and five) is now trailing Joe Biden (-115) to win the U.S. Trump’s going to do whatever it takes rhetorically and behind the scenes, politically, to get a vaccine accredited by Nov 3.

Let’s see if Joe Biden declares first earlier than taking a definitive view on the Democrat race. The subsequent guess wasCarly Fiorina at 60.0 (1.5%) for the Presidency. Though they halved initially, her odds are actually out to 100 (1%). I’m holding the position for now but will look to get out if the chances move in our favour. With well over a 12 months of the race left to go, there are already three live markets on the Betfair Exchange with plenty of liquidity – Next President, Republican Nominee and Democrat Nominee.

The broader trend quickly returned though, with the final 11 polls displaying only one Clinton lead above four% (she received the popular vote by 2.1%). Whatever the polls and odds say, loads of punters shall be ready to dismiss those indicators to back the underdog after Trump’s stunning turnaround final time. This really has been a cracking market, packed with uncertainty and betting drama. Susan Rice was matched earlier at [350.0], Karen Bass at [200.zero] and Tammy Duckworth [120.zero].

Tomorrow, I’ll be writing a new piece weighing the Palin impact. In an extended election with many twists and turns – loads of which have already occured before the primaries have even began – the key to making money is timing.

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